Published on: 2025-10-23

Intelligence Report: Youth who led Madagascar protests hope coup leader will continue to hear them as president – ABC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The current situation in Madagascar, characterized by a military coup led by Col. Michael Randrianirina, presents a complex political landscape. The most supported hypothesis is that Randrianirina will attempt to consolidate power and delay a transition to civilian rule, leveraging initial popular support. Confidence in this assessment is moderate due to historical precedents and current socio-political dynamics. Recommended action includes monitoring the situation closely and engaging with regional partners to encourage a peaceful transition to civilian governance.

2. Competing Hypotheses

1. **Hypothesis A**: Col. Michael Randrianirina will consolidate power and delay a transition to civilian rule, leveraging military support and initial popular backing.
– **Supporting Evidence**: Historical patterns in African coups, Randrianirina’s military backing, and the current socio-economic challenges which may justify prolonged military governance.

2. **Hypothesis B**: Randrianirina will facilitate a transition to civilian rule, responding to both domestic and international pressure for democratic governance.
– **Supporting Evidence**: Statements from Randrianirina about ceding power, potential international diplomatic pressure, and the desire to maintain legitimacy.

Using ACH 2.0, Hypothesis A is better supported due to the alignment with historical patterns and the current socio-political environment in Madagascar.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

– **Assumptions**: It is assumed that Randrianirina values international legitimacy and that the military’s support is unwavering.
– **Red Flags**: Potential for misinformation regarding Randrianirina’s intentions and the stability of his support base. Lack of clear timelines for transition to civilian rule.
– **Blind Spots**: The role of external actors and regional organizations in influencing Madagascar’s political trajectory.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

– **Economic Risks**: Prolonged instability could deter foreign investment and exacerbate economic challenges.
– **Geopolitical Risks**: Potential for regional instability if the coup inspires similar actions in neighboring countries.
– **Psychological Risks**: Public disillusionment if promised reforms are not realized, potentially leading to further unrest.
– **Cascading Threats**: Risk of increased authoritarianism and human rights abuses under prolonged military rule.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage with regional organizations to advocate for a clear timeline for transition to civilian rule.
• Monitor economic indicators for signs of deterioration that could lead to further unrest.
• Scenario Projections:
  • **Best Case**: Successful transition to civilian rule within a year, with international support.
  • **Worst Case**: Entrenchment of military rule, leading to increased repression and economic decline.
  • **Most Likely**: Delayed transition with intermittent unrest and international diplomatic engagement.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

– Col. Michael Randrianirina
– Andry Rajoelina
– Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo
– Tsantsa Fiderana Rakotoarison
– Bakary Sambe
– Kaajal Ramjathan-Keogh

7. Thematic Tags

national security threats, political instability, regional focus, governance transition