Published on: 2025-02-15

Intelligence Report: Zelensky calls for creation of an ‘army of Europe’ – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

Volodymyr Zelensky has called for the creation of a European army in response to rising concerns about Russian aggression. This proposal comes amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and discussions involving key figures such as Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The concept of a European army has been previously suggested by leaders like Emmanuel Macron but faced resistance within the EU. The strategic landscape is shifting, with implications for NATO and European defense policies.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Potential for unified European defense strategy, reduced reliance on external powers.

Weaknesses: Political fragmentation within the EU, lack of consensus on military integration.

Opportunities: Enhanced regional security, stronger deterrence against external threats.

Threats: Escalation of tensions with Russia, potential division among EU member states.

Cross-Impact Matrix

The proposal for a European army could influence NATO dynamics, potentially leading to a recalibration of US-Europe relations. Increased European military capabilities may alter the strategic calculus of neighboring regions, particularly in Eastern Europe.

Scenario Generation

Best-case scenario: Successful formation of a European army enhances regional security and stability.

Worst-case scenario: Internal EU divisions prevent effective military integration, weakening collective defense.

Most likely scenario: Incremental progress towards greater military cooperation within the EU, with continued reliance on NATO for broader security guarantees.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The creation of a European army poses strategic risks, including potential friction with NATO and the US. It may also provoke a stronger Russian response, increasing regional instability. Economic implications include potential shifts in defense spending priorities and impacts on the defense industry.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Encourage diplomatic engagement to address EU member state concerns and build consensus on military integration.
• Enhance intelligence-sharing mechanisms within Europe to improve threat assessment and response capabilities.
• Consider regulatory adjustments to facilitate joint defense procurement and development initiatives.

Outlook:

Best-case: A cohesive European defense strategy emerges, strengthening regional security.

Worst-case: Disagreements within the EU lead to stalled progress and weakened collective defense.

Most likely: Gradual steps towards enhanced military cooperation, with ongoing reliance on NATO.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals and organizations, including Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Keith Kellogg, Pete Hegseth, Kaja Kallas, Olaf Scholz, Donald Tusk, and Dmitry Peskov. These individuals play pivotal roles in shaping the geopolitical landscape and influencing the future of European defense policy.