Published on: 2025-11-21

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Intelligence Report: Zelensky’s Stance on US-Backed Peace Plan

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

With a moderate confidence level, it is assessed that President Zelensky is navigating a complex geopolitical landscape where he must balance internal pressures and external alliances. The most supported hypothesis is that Zelensky will cautiously engage with the US-backed peace plan while seeking to maintain territorial integrity and sovereignty. Recommended action includes diplomatic engagement with European allies to bolster support and mitigate potential isolation from the US.

2. Competing Hypotheses

Hypothesis 1: Zelensky will accept the US-backed peace plan, prioritizing the restoration of peace and maintaining US support, even at the cost of territorial concessions.

Hypothesis 2: Zelensky will reject the US-backed peace plan, opting instead to rally European allies to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, thereby resisting pressure to concede to Moscow’s terms.

The second hypothesis is more likely given Zelensky’s public statements emphasizing sovereignty and the potential political fallout of conceding territory. However, the risk of losing US support remains a significant counterbalance.

3. Key Assumptions and Red Flags

Assumptions: It is assumed that Zelensky’s primary goal is to maintain Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It is also assumed that US support is crucial for Ukraine’s strategic positioning.

Red Flags: The lack of a clear timeline for the peace plan’s implementation and the potential for internal political backlash in Ukraine are significant concerns. Additionally, the possibility of misinformation or manipulation by Moscow to sway public opinion or diplomatic stances should be monitored.

4. Implications and Strategic Risks

Should Zelensky accept the plan, there is a risk of internal political instability and loss of public support. Conversely, rejecting the plan could lead to strained relations with the US, potentially impacting military and economic aid. Escalation scenarios include increased Russian aggression or cyber operations targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, as well as potential economic repercussions from prolonged conflict.

5. Recommendations and Outlook

• Engage in diplomatic efforts with European allies to ensure a unified stance on Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
• Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect against potential Russian cyber operations.
• Prepare for potential economic impacts by diversifying economic partnerships and seeking alternative aid sources.
• Best-case scenario: A diplomatic resolution that maintains Ukraine’s territorial integrity and strengthens alliances.
• Worst-case scenario: Increased isolation from the US and heightened internal instability.
• Most-likely scenario: Continued diplomatic negotiations with a focus on maintaining alliances and territorial integrity.

6. Key Individuals and Entities

Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Dmitry Peskov.

7. Thematic Tags

Regional Focus, Regional Focus: Ukraine, Russia, United States, European Union

Structured Analytic Techniques Applied

• Causal Layered Analysis (CLA): Analyze events across surface happenings, systems, worldviews, and myths.
• Cross-Impact Simulation: Model ripple effects across neighboring states, conflicts, or economic dependencies.
• Scenario Generation: Explore divergent futures under varying assumptions to identify plausible paths.

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