Published on: 2025-02-13

Intelligence Report: Zelensky says no peace deal without Ukraine involvement – BBC News

1. BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia remains unresolved, with Volodymyr Zelensky asserting that any peace deal must involve Ukraine directly. Despite discussions involving Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, no agreement has been reached. The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with implications for NATO and European security. Immediate strategic actions are required to support Ukraine’s sovereignty and regional stability.

2. Detailed Analysis

The following structured analytic techniques have been applied for this analysis:

SWOT Analysis

Strengths: Ukraine’s resolve and international support, particularly from NATO allies.
Weaknesses: Limited military resources compared to Russia, ongoing internal displacement.
Opportunities: Potential for increased NATO involvement and support.
Threats: Continued Russian aggression, potential for escalation into broader conflict.

Cross-Impact Matrix

Events in Ukraine influence regional security, with potential spillover effects into neighboring countries. Increased NATO involvement could deter further aggression but may also provoke Russian countermeasures.

Scenario Generation

Scenario 1: Successful peace negotiations involving all parties, leading to a ceasefire and stabilization.
Scenario 2: Continued conflict with increased international involvement, potentially escalating tensions.
Scenario 3: Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes, resulting in prolonged instability.

3. Implications and Strategic Risks

The conflict poses significant risks to regional stability and international security. Economic impacts include disruptions to energy supplies and trade routes. The potential for escalation could draw in additional international actors, complicating diplomatic resolutions and increasing the risk of broader conflict.

4. Recommendations and Outlook

Recommendations:

• Enhance diplomatic efforts to include all stakeholders in peace negotiations.
• Increase military and economic support to Ukraine to strengthen its defense capabilities.
• Encourage NATO to develop contingency plans for potential escalation scenarios.

Outlook:

Best-case: A negotiated settlement involving all parties, leading to a sustainable peace agreement.
Worst-case: Escalation into a wider regional conflict involving multiple international actors.
Most likely: Prolonged conflict with intermittent negotiations and continued international involvement.

5. Key Individuals and Entities

The report mentions significant individuals such as Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Dmytro Lytvyn. Key entities include NATO, the European Union, and various national governments involved in the diplomatic process.